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G_Cam
Member Since: 12 Aug 2010
Location: Fife
Posts: 2055
  
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Do you think if there was a vote to Leave the EU people would vote Yes?
I think we are all governed by a higher body these days... Too many Eu Rules on the this and that ... So Scotland is really a sub division of a branch office of the EU.... 1 TR6 Rusting away quietly
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 13th Feb 2014 10:13 am |
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bigdave
Site Sponsor
Member Since: 04 Jul 2008
Location: Cornwall
Posts: 9869
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Another perspective on independence is this scenario.
Yes campaign wins and wee Eck gets his Trotsky Empire all to himself for a few years.
The rest of the UK carry on recovering, Scotland pays back its share of the debt, the UK Military bases are thrown out / leave as do some large financial institutions.
The new Scottish currency is released and there is an immediate collapse/ run on it.
After a few years of increasing economic problems and suffering standards of living, wee eck gets voted out for a more moderate government.
Scotland then requests a return to the Union to begin benefitting from the resources of the Union.
Would the Whole of the Union get a vote?
If so would we vote YES for a return.
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| 13th Feb 2014 10:27 am |
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A.J.M
Member Since: 31 Oct 2009
Location: Carluke
Posts: 2826
 
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A mate i know, wrote and put it like this. This prospect scares me. I remain true to my statement, if a Yes vote goes ahead. I will be leaving.
There is another banking crisis. Banks in both Scotland and rUK are in difficulties and require bailing out. rUK can, through the BoE, act as lender of last resort for the English banks. It can't do so for the Scottish one(s). The BoE's actions cause the GBP to weaken. The Scottish Govt now have to choose between letting the bank fail and borrowing money on the markets to bail it out. But because GBP is now weaker, that borrowing costs more to reflect the risk premium. The risk premium is also inflated by the fact that Scotland has no lender of last resort, has no history as a borrower, and everybody remembers Salmond's threat to wash his hands of debt and to hell with the consequences when they waltzed out of the union a few years previous.
Suddenly, it's costing a lot more to keep the Scottish bank afloat than their equivalent numbers in rUK. The financial markets smell blood and start to short Scottish bonds, as happened to Argentina. Things are not looking good. The Scottish Govt approach the ECB and ask very nicely. The ECB point out that Scotland snottily refused to join the Euro, and say 'If rUK won't bail out somebody else's bank, why should we?'
Capital starts to flow out of Scotland with a vengeance. The bulk of it moves to London. This helps stabilise GBP, but even then it's not good news for Scotland: The capital flight has placed an even bigger premium on Scottish debt.
The Scottish bank/banks have to cut costs and tighten lending criteria to consolidate their position, causing job losses in the Financial sector, and hugely undermining confidence in Scottish businesses. Tax receipts fall markedly, and the economy starts to contract.
The debt is now rising faster than it can be paid down, and the faster it rises, the faster capital runs away, jobs are lost and the economy shrinks.
The  is in the fan. Scotland eventually, in desperation, strikes an agreement to sign over oil revenues in return for an ECB bail-out. Unfortunately, when oil is taken out, Scotland has a near 10% structural deficit. There is no way out without massive spending cuts. The state pension and the NHS are gone.
Scotland applies to rejoin the Union, less than a decade after it left.
Think something like this couldn't happen to a plucky little country like Scotland? It did once before, and the history isn't lost on commentators, who dub the latest problems as 'Darien Mk 2'. In loving memory of FA54WSK.
Rest well old friend, your work is done.
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| 13th Feb 2014 12:31 pm |
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mse
Member Since: 27 Jun 2005
Location: Shropshire
Posts: 2702
 
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Does Scotland have its own banks - I thought they were all owned by either the UK government or England or other actual countries? Mike
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| 13th Feb 2014 12:45 pm |
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A.J.M
Member Since: 31 Oct 2009
Location: Carluke
Posts: 2826
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I think they are mostly under Gov control. There are a few smaller ones that aren't but the large ones are under control.
I think a Yes tactic would to get them handed over.. which won't happen.
The boy George in Edinburgh blew apart the shared currency idea so that's the main arguement of the SNP dead. In loving memory of FA54WSK.
Rest well old friend, your work is done.
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| 13th Feb 2014 12:59 pm |
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DG
Site Moderator
Member Since: 12 Dec 2005
Location: The Gaff
Posts: 50971
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Apparently Scotland is being "bullied" because it's been told it can't have the pound ....but you can't have the penny and the bun eh  21 year LR veteran > D2 GS 2003 > D3 S 2006 > D3 HSE 2009 > D4 HSE 2013 > D4 HSE 2015 > D5 HSE 2018 > DS HSE R-Dynamic P300e 2021
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| 13th Feb 2014 1:05 pm |
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bigdave
Site Sponsor
Member Since: 04 Jul 2008
Location: Cornwall
Posts: 9869
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Pre vote - Its all Westminster's fault!!
Post Vote - Its all Westminster's fault!!
Bless wee eck and his ego. All things shipping, storage, transport. UK and worldwide.
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| 13th Feb 2014 1:07 pm |
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crews control
Member Since: 18 Mar 2007
Location: Dorset
Posts: 5011
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What's to stop another Country using your currency? I realise they wouldn't have any fiscal control and be totally at the mercy of the policies of a foreign government... but for instance, if we wanted to start using US dollars, what's to stop us?
(This is theory - I know we'd have trouble getting enough notes out of the states!)
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| 13th Feb 2014 1:12 pm |
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Disco_Mikey
Member Since: 29 May 2007
Location: Dundee, Scotland
Posts: 20786
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DG wrote:Apparently Scotland is being "bullied" because it's been told it can't have the pound ....but you can't have the penny and the bun eh
Pfff, keep up
Disco_Mikey wrote:But it's not 100% independence.
Only the bits he wants, such as keeping the British £, and the EU 
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| 13th Feb 2014 2:04 pm |
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grahamk
Member Since: 28 Feb 2010
Location: Dumgoyne
Posts: 1473
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What right do we have to keep the pound!? absolutely zero. I am sorry, we can't pick and choose the T's & C's
what a load of absolute 3 Flash Indicators
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| 13th Feb 2014 2:26 pm |
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highlands
Member Since: 11 Jan 2010
Location: NW Highlands
Posts: 5098
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crews control wrote:What's to stop another Country using your currency? I realise they wouldn't have any fiscal control and be totally at the mercy of the policies of a foreign government... but for instance, if we wanted to start using US dollars, what's to stop us?
(This is theory - I know we'd have trouble getting enough notes out of the states!)
Like Ecuador?
They use the US dollar, but can't issue it.
Which is a big problem if you are running a deficit.
The consequences are generally an even greater loss of independence, a la Ecuador:
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| 13th Feb 2014 2:32 pm |
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G_Cam
Member Since: 12 Aug 2010
Location: Fife
Posts: 2055
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I do worry that telling the Scots that they cant get the £ will backfire... One thing sure to get the back of anyone up is telling them you Cant.....etc..
Imagine it was the other way round... would the English or Welsh like to be told.. you cant have the £ etc... It was bad enough when we ALL thought we might adopt the Euro! 1 TR6 Rusting away quietly
1 FARR UTV SOLD
1 International Harvester SOLD
7 x D3 all SOLD
2 x D4 both SOLD
1 x Mrs D4 'Panther' SOLD
1 x Outlander van SOLD
1 continual stream of car parts and me living in the garage...
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| 13th Feb 2014 11:28 pm |
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DG
Site Moderator
Member Since: 12 Dec 2005
Location: The Gaff
Posts: 50971
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But the English & Welsh aren't proposing independence ...it would be like getting divorced but one party demanding a joint bank account. I would have two words for that 21 year LR veteran > D2 GS 2003 > D3 S 2006 > D3 HSE 2009 > D4 HSE 2013 > D4 HSE 2015 > D5 HSE 2018 > DS HSE R-Dynamic P300e 2021
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| 13th Feb 2014 11:45 pm |
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BLFarrar
Member Since: 02 Aug 2006
Location: Deepest, Dankest, Darkest, Dingiest......Le Halifax, West Yorkshire...with strong links to Ireland
Posts: 6222
 
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| May have said it before... |
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but I will say it again:
1) I dont believe its democratic or ethical that Scotland alone cannot just vote them selves out but affect the rest of the Union..if it affects the whole then the whole should be able to vote. A principle you either agree with simple democracy or not then you arent a democrat.
2) Currency - I dont believe the powers that be over the border have thought this through & mis thought the situation that this can just be swept through....the main thrust of what they want is finical separation as they can't have geographical separation or for that matter separation on lots of other un split able things. If they did invent a new denomination total supported by themselves lets call it the "Thistle" it may be different. It won't be as that cant do this.
3) it isn't about being a Scottish nationalist - its more being anti British with some grudge to settle...than when the dust settle & its seeing the situation for what it may be...the realisation will be independence isn't practical....also for the masses undesirable BREXIT - done properly.
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| 13th Feb 2014 11:53 pm |
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Strange how we can't have the pound and yet for years if you gave a Scottish Pound down south the number of times it got refused as not legal currency still makes me laugh, so we do have our own Scottish pound already!!! 
