Member Since: 13 Aug 2009
Location: Not London Anymore (or the US for that matter)
Posts: 1928
Lespes,
Interesting, but from whom have you received your information? Perhaps from those who may buy your car? Obviously used car prices are driven by supply and demand. I can't see how anyone, less those perhaps trying to make a killing from an unsuspecting seller, could predict that demand would drop so quickly. Unless there really has been a significant increase in production (can anyone confirm?).
So I'd be tempted to throw up the B'S flag to anyone suggesting next month will see such a significant price drop. But we'll see. To date, prices for the D4 have been far firmer than for the 3; the D4 is holding up very well indeed.PAGODA
28th Aug 2014 8:10 pm
lespes
Member Since: 17 Sep 2009
Location: Sitting Down
Posts: 2232
Pagoda ( a good old doubting Thomas ) Fair enough question though
The person who supplied the info will surely let himself be know if he wants to.
The figures I have been quoted from 3 different sources were the same, so they most all be working on the same info. The difference is one supplied an explanation.
This is the info I received.
This sector continues to grow and exclusivity is no longer the norm but more the reserve of a select few. For the rest, volumes are becoming much more mainstream and the danger with that is the inevitability of pressure on used values. Registrations have increased by over 10,000 units per year since 2011and now run at almost twice the number of Upper Medium.
No dispute that Landrover have being selling a lot more, however this is only a prediction, the real market might dictate a different scenerio.
2 years ago sold a D4 with similar market predictions, sold at the lower price to dealer anticipating sharp falls. The Freelander I then bought was over the top as it still reflected the higher value of months previous when they had purchased it. Come Jan and the bad winter we had, prices surged and many on here in that intervening period have experienced exceptionally small rates of devaluation.
Over the past 6 years I seem to of been in the market to sell just as the prices have fallen dramactically.
All started with buying a Sport and refusing their utterly poor trade-in price for D2. Easy I thought 3-4 k under book will sell private. That was the very day the 4x4 market came to a shuddering halt. 12 months later I sold it for the price they had offered.D4 Landmark MY16 Santorini Black THE LAST
D4 HSE MY12 Marmais Teal: Gone. Missed a lot!
Freelander 2 SD HSE MY11 Silver:Thankfully gone.
D4 HSE MY11 Silver: Gone missed !
Range Rover Sport MY06 HSE Buck Blue: Gone missed!
Discovery D2 TD5 Facelift MY Red Gone Missed!
Discovery D2 TD5 Cobalt Blue: Gone Missed!
Discovery D1 Auto Oxford Blue Not missed at all!
Discovery D1 Avalon Blue First LR! missed!
Now demoted to a VW
28th Aug 2014 8:37 pm
pagoda
Member Since: 13 Aug 2009
Location: Not London Anymore (or the US for that matter)
Posts: 1928
Maybe not a Doubting Thomas;perhaps more of a realist. I change my car every year, so have a little experience. But only a little.
Your graph and the prices are miles off the Glass's guide prices. You have a 2012 HSE with 29k. The latest guide I have to hand is 2 months old, but it lists a 12 plate car like yours (3k fewer miles) at 39.5 trade and 40250 hi. That said, I don't know what the Cap guide is or where your graph comes from. It could be the more accurate guide for all I know.
Keep the faith and good luck!PAGODA
28th Aug 2014 9:04 pm
lespes
Member Since: 17 Sep 2009
Location: Sitting Down
Posts: 2232
Got the solution
You buy mine using your valuations I'll then buy from Slug Farmer at his original quoted dealer price.
In many ways I hope I am wrong (well this info is).
I have put my sale on hold, hope Slug Farmer gets it sorted though, as said before doubt dealer will be a loss making situation, maybe break even at worst and will still of made money on the new sale.D4 Landmark MY16 Santorini Black THE LAST
D4 HSE MY12 Marmais Teal: Gone. Missed a lot!
Freelander 2 SD HSE MY11 Silver:Thankfully gone.
D4 HSE MY11 Silver: Gone missed !
Range Rover Sport MY06 HSE Buck Blue: Gone missed!
Discovery D2 TD5 Facelift MY Red Gone Missed!
Discovery D2 TD5 Cobalt Blue: Gone Missed!
Discovery D1 Auto Oxford Blue Not missed at all!
Discovery D1 Avalon Blue First LR! missed!
Now demoted to a VW
28th Aug 2014 9:19 pm
pagoda
Member Since: 13 Aug 2009
Location: Not London Anymore (or the US for that matter)
Posts: 1928
Good point! Apologies to slug Farmer for the blatant thread high-jack. Good luck with your battle, SF.PAGODA
28th Aug 2014 9:26 pm
Slug
Member Since: 07 Feb 2012
Location: East Midlands
Posts: 346
Ok, I really appreciate all the posts etc.
If somebody has a Glass's guide, could you let me know what they value the following:
Disco 4 HSE
Reg. March 13
Mileage. 25k
FLRSH
Met paint
Rest of extra won't add much anything.
Thoughts?Still lurking, although moved to the dark side: disco5.co.uk
2019 D5 HSE
2019 Baby RR First Edition
28th Aug 2014 10:11 pm
DerbyshireDisco
Member Since: 12 Mar 2012
Location: Derbyshire
Posts: 1397
Your Accountant will have either Glass' or Cap guide to value their clients vehicles, a quick call should do the trick.Displaced Yorkshireman.
=^:^=
SDV6 Auto obviously, Loire blue/Ebony, ugly kid glass, RLD wheel protector, private plate and maybe side steps.
28th Aug 2014 10:20 pm
Gazellio
Member Since: 09 Jan 2011
Location: Chilterns
Posts: 4130
The graph above is from our HPI TRADEWEB CAP Valuation system and the figures are correct. Black Book by CAP forcasts futures prices using many different criteria. Glasses have been way out for some time and the vast majority of high end dealers use a combination of CAP and Deltapoint (similar valuation results) . Just check the current cars of this age being offered RETAIL by Main Dealers on AT etc to see the figures are market accurate.
As a specific example this very saleable 2012(61) WHITE SDV6 HSE 20" Wheel with only £29000 miles is being Main Dealer marketed with 2 years free servicing at £36950 hoping to get £36000 which means trade value of about £32000.(max) Many many more similar examples...
Last edited by Gazellio on 28th Aug 2014 11:00 pm. Edited 2 times in total
28th Aug 2014 10:34 pm
Gazellio
Member Since: 09 Jan 2011
Location: Chilterns
Posts: 4130
slug farmer wrote:
Ok, I really appreciate all the posts etc.
If somebody has a Glass's guide, could you let me know what they value the following:
Disco 4 HSE
Reg. March 13
Mileage. 25k
FLRSH
Met paint
Rest of extra won't add much anything.
Thoughts?
This is CAP now but predicted to be roughly £3000 LESS next week across the board next week (September)....
Land Rover Discovery (04 on)
3.0 SDV6 (255bhp) HSE 5d Auto
2013/13
25000mls - Adjusted Valuation
Original Price £52,475
Franchised Dealer £42,790
Independent Dealer £41,945
Private Good £41,105
Private Poor £36,600
Part Exchange £38,160
PS: Will update next week hopefully the drop will not be as bad as predicted.
28th Aug 2014 10:56 pm
DG Site Moderator
Member Since: 12 Dec 2005
Location: The Gaff
Posts: 50971
lespes wrote:
Basically since 2011 a lot more have been produced 10k a year and they are now coming onto the market and it is anticipated they will force the prices down very steeply.
I might have to use the word "cobblers" in place of some other derogatory terms ....I assume that this is what you have been advised by by someone who knows nothing about D4's or the market 21 year LR veteran > D2 GS 2003 > D3 S 2006 > D3 HSE 2009 > D4 HSE 2013 > D4 HSE 2015 > D5 HSE 2018 > DS HSE R-Dynamic P300e 2021
28th Aug 2014 11:12 pm
Gazellio
Member Since: 09 Jan 2011
Location: Chilterns
Posts: 4130
The comment quoted above is by CAP themselves. They decide whether the data they use is relevant. The trade uses cap and the trade controls prices. You however do not have to agree or believe it's a free world after all.
28th Aug 2014 11:23 pm
DG Site Moderator
Member Since: 12 Dec 2005
Location: The Gaff
Posts: 50971
Just an opinion Gaz
There are 2 issues which help form mine ....
1. D4 production at around 50,000 units pa and proportion of UK sales has been roughly static each year since 2009 ..so what's different now and where this "10,000" figure comes from I don't know as UK sales form the bulk of that 50,000
Member Since: 09 Jan 2011
Location: Chilterns
Posts: 4130
CAP are saying new registrations have increased by 10k a year see graph comment.
The "Winter" that effects prices is still 3 month off prices are set to fall before then as they do each month under non exceptional circumstances.
28th Aug 2014 11:45 pm
DG Site Moderator
Member Since: 12 Dec 2005
Location: The Gaff
Posts: 50971
If CAP are saying registrations have increased by 10k in th UK then that doesn't appear to be reflected in JLRs own stats Anyway as always... demand will drive the price 21 year LR veteran > D2 GS 2003 > D3 S 2006 > D3 HSE 2009 > D4 HSE 2013 > D4 HSE 2015 > D5 HSE 2018 > DS HSE R-Dynamic P300e 2021
28th Aug 2014 11:54 pm
pagoda
Member Since: 13 Aug 2009
Location: Not London Anymore (or the US for that matter)
Posts: 1928
Don't know anything about this CAP thing, but last month 2 dealers offered almost exactly the same price for my MY13 12 month car, and both based their quotes on Glass's prices. Gary, I gave you their prices at the time. Your comment was that the prices they were offering were very good, but that they could offer those prices because as dealers, they could then ask more on the forecourt. That make sense to me.
All I'm saying is that I haven't seen prices change in 3 years, but fully admit that in selling only one car a year I'm not exactly tracking the market. Hopefully things won't take the dive some people predict.PAGODA
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
) Fair enough question though
I might have to use the word "cobblers" in place of some other derogatory terms ....I assume that this is what you have been advised by by someone who knows nothing about D4's or the market 
