Member Since: 11 Jan 2010
Location: NW Highlands
Posts: 5095
It's been 3.5 years since the Scottish Independence referendum.
I would say, for Scotland, it was much more disruptive to relationships than the EU referendum, and yet, after a couple of years, it has settled down to something that comes up rarely, even among my very pro-Indy friends.
I can't see the EU question remaining as open as the Indy question so I don't see that it will be a strong topic for very long after we actually leave proper.Black 05 TDV6 HSE Auto
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16th Mar 2018 12:25 pm
Riccardo
Member Since: 20 Feb 2010
Location: Porto (was Kent)
Posts: 4123
Lost for Words wrote:
Votes aren't devisive; the issues behind them are. That's not a reason to not have votes, or why one view is better than another.
Agree
I am not saying that the vote was wrong in itself I think the way it was presented and the choices have created the messIt takes all sorts (to make a world).
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16th Mar 2018 12:47 pm
Pelyma
Member Since: 06 Jan 2005
Location: Patching, Sussex
Posts: 15496
Lost for Words wrote:
Pelyma wrote:
Economics is not a science, they can make forecasts and predictions, but they are just that. A+B doesn’t always make C.
The trick is to know the difference between what is economics, and what is econometrics. The detailed, maths-based economic forecasting is the latter, and is increasingly regarded with scepticism. The former contains many useful and sound principles that are based in science and logic, but they are easily abused as they are often counterintuitive and little understood. It's also key to know what assumptions are being made.
The problem is always how the scientific bits are used and portrayed; there are few sounder principles in economics than the understanding of trade, on which the vast, vast, vast majority of economists agree but how one applies it matters greatly. The core implication of trade theory is that free trade is mutually and unilaterally beneficial. Barriers inflict harm, first and foremost, on the country that imposes them.
Therefore, all one has to do to create a report criticising Brexit is to assume that Britian will apply tariff and non-tariff barriers when we leave - often at the maximum WTO level. You can then apply complete scientific rigour to the report and come up with the biased result you so desire.
The fallacy is to equivocate leaving the EU with protectionism - the two are different things. We don't ahve to do that. Flip the political assumption and you get the opposite result from the same analysis. At the heart of it lies a political question, not an economic one.
The other thing is to weight heavily on a gravity-based model of trade. That is, the closer countries are, the more they will trade. It was once quite accurate, but with transportation costs falling, distance matters less and less, so it's no longer an accurate proxy for the transactions costs. It also ignores commonality in lanuage, culture, law and business practices that will lead to increased trade between those countries.
Most of the reports are economically quite sound - they just aren't measuring based on a neutral interpretation of Brexit. What the reports really say is that we shouldn't be protectionist after Brexit; not that we shouldn't have Brexit - something Brexiteers and Remainers alike should be able to agree on.
I know what you mean, I think, but even the great Economists aren't that good at predicting the future. In 1930 Keynes predicted that by 2030 we will only be working 15 hour weeks and that because we want to.
But I do get immensely frustrated by all these reports that people wave around like Neville Chamberlain telling us that this or that is going to happen. All efforts should be (by all sides) focussed on a united front to make this work. The country decided now we need to work together.DS3 TDV6 HSE - Silver with Alpaca (old one) Gone
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Keynes? You can't go on what Keynes said... That man has a lot to answer for.
You're right though, economics shouldn't be, and practiced correctly, isn't, about making predictions, but understanding human interaction, exchange, incentives, wealth creation etc.
One always has to be aware that there are two types of economist - interventionists like Keynes and Krugman who think they can understand, design, predict and control everything, and those like Adam Smith and Hayek who are fundamentally grounded in an appreciation for the limits of knowledge, and the complex, spontaneous nature of society.
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16th Mar 2018 3:15 pm
Canburne
Member Since: 15 Jan 2013
Location: Devon
Posts: 2029
Riccardo wrote:
I am not saying that the vote was wrong in itself I think the way it was presented and the choices have created the mess
Trouble is I think the 'mess' is in more in your mind than in reality. It was never going to be easy as the whole process is enormously complicated but we keep getting project fear thrown about. The truth is we are now committed so lets all try togther and make it the best possible outcome..
"the inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings....the inherent vice of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries" Winston Churchill
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16th Mar 2018 3:32 pm
DG Site Moderator
Member Since: 12 Dec 2005
Location: The Gaff
Posts: 50934
Errr no... we were told leaving was going to be very easy and uncomplicated ......remainers said it was not and now that it is turning out to be a pig in a poke pile of ...brexiteers are pretending they knew that all along. 21 year LR veteran > D2 GS 2003 > D3 S 2006 > D3 HSE 2009 > D4 HSE 2013 > D4 HSE 2015 > D5 HSE 2018 > DS HSE R-Dynamic P300e 2021
16th Mar 2018 3:43 pm
Canburne
Member Since: 15 Jan 2013
Location: Devon
Posts: 2029
Must have been on the bus then..... .
"the inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings....the inherent vice of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries" Winston Churchill
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16th Mar 2018 4:04 pm
Discologist
Member Since: 19 May 2014
Location: Yorkshire
Posts: 537
Canburne wrote:
Trouble is I think the 'mess' is in more in your mind than in reality. It was never going to be easy as the whole process is enormously complicated but we keep getting project fear thrown about. The truth is we are now committed so lets all try together and make it the best possible outcome.
I preferred Project Consider the Risks and Benefits.
16th Mar 2018 4:13 pm
Riccardo
Member Since: 20 Feb 2010
Location: Porto (was Kent)
Posts: 4123
Canburne wrote:
Must have been on the bus then.....
Exactly right and maybe for certain things you are still there It takes all sorts (to make a world).
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Last edited by Riccardo on 16th Mar 2018 4:21 pm. Edited 1 time in total
16th Mar 2018 4:20 pm
ruben D3 Decade
Member Since: 26 Sep 2006
Location: ASTURIAS
Posts: 2384
I know that this will surely be my last intervention on this topic, and who cares? I know!. Just in case, I beg you not to quote me because I will not answer. This last post will be full of congratulations, tranquility and good luck. Congratulations because I can see from your words that the decisions made were correct and that you have everything under control and everything goes according to plan. Tranquility because the process will be the best for all people, which in the end is more important than the ideology itself. Good luck for everyone for the future, although I think that according to what you say you will not need ... citing the great B.D. It seems that you have God on your side, and everything will be forgotten very soon after the break, I doubt it ... and to paraphrase P.F, and some other film, we see ourselves on the dark side of the moon! bye!lost in translation!
16th Mar 2018 4:21 pm
Riccardo
Member Since: 20 Feb 2010
Location: Porto (was Kent)
Posts: 4123
Ouch those remainers will never stop
Quote:
The first Brexit comic, with characters including the Reverend May and her Brexit Gang, David Dealin’ Davis and Boris “Captain Brexit” Johnson, will go into circulation next month, loosely based on the classic 1960s children’s TV programme Trumpton.The project is the idea of illustrator and author Mike Dicks, who raised £4,400 via crowdfunding to pay for the first edition, which will be posted to donors and supporters by 1 April.
“The Brexit comic is about giving everyone a laugh. Better than crying about it,” says Dicks, who admits he is a Remainer. “I suppose it’s countercultural to go from online to print, but I was a huge fan of the Beano and like the idea of a physical comic every month.”
Member Since: 04 Sep 2015
Location: In between cradle and grave
Posts: 510
Nice one, Dave! The UK is now a client state of the EU (Rees Mogg said vassal state but he does like to use old words - it helps to cultivate his image).
Is this a temporary state of affairs? Yes, until the new trade deal is agreed, at which point the UK will be properly trussed up for the long term. Sovereignty! Brought to you by the Brexiters.MY91 110 CSW, so long ago I can barely remember it - sold
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19th Mar 2018 4:09 pm
Canburne
Member Since: 15 Jan 2013
Location: Devon
Posts: 2029
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